Sunday, March 6, 2016

Bottom Line "Bangladesh-US dialogue: Why now?"



On May 5, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr. Dipu Moni and the US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton signed a Joint Declaration on "Bangladesh-US Partnership Dialogue," which was witnessed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
The Declaration has eight paragraphs and covers almost all areas from human rights, rule of law, empowering of women to security cooperation, counter-terrorism and transnational crime.
The Declaration envisages annual consultations between the two countries at the level of foreign secretary/under secretary of state and periodic consultations at the foreign minister level.
Partnership dialogue is based on long-term shared vision, based on convergence of strategic interests, mutual trust, confidence in each other and respect for each other's strategic sensitivities.
The US discuses issues of mutual interest on a piecemeal basis with Bangladesh. On April 19, Bangladesh and the US for the first time exchanged views in the areas of (a) counter-terrorism, (b) disaster management, (c) maritime security and (d) UN peacekeeping operations. The US delegation was led by Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Andrew J. Shapiro while Bangladesh delegation was led by the additional foreign secretary.
The US wanted to have a formal permanent platform, which has been created by the Declaration.
The question is, why has the US signed the Partnership Dialogue with Bangladesh now? There are several reasons and some of them deserve mention below:
First, the rise of China and India has brought about a massive realignment of economic and political and strategic power at an unprecedented speed and scale shifting toward Asia. This is a much bigger shift in global production than was recorded after the Industrial Revolution, and is occurring more rapidly.
Emerging Asia -- excluding Japan -- produced 14% of world GDP in 1990, but will more than triple its share in 2030 according to Buiter. Within two decades there will be more middle class consumers in Asia than in the rest of the world.
Second, the US wants market-access in banking, insurance, telecommunication, securities, audio-visual, and agriculture in Asian countries. It also wants lowest tariff and non-tariff rates for its goods. US energy companies are interested in exploring the off-shore blocks in the Bay of Bengal.
Third, the Indian Ocean has been increasingly militarised in recent years. The US, China, India, Myanmar, Malaysia and Pakistan are engaged in bolstering their navies to oversee the sea lanes of Indian Ocean. China has extended its influence into the India Ocean through Myanmar's Coco Islands (near Andaman Islands) where it reportedly has established a surveillance naval base.
Fourth, a new US emphasis on Asia is reinforced by the strategy as the Pentagon plans to shift its focus and resources away from Europe. In November last year, Obama said: "As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and missions in the Asia-Pacific a top priority."
Furthermore, Obama administration's security doctrine is rooted in international alliances and his insistence that the US cannot act alone in the world is also a message to all nations that they must shoulder their share of the global burden.
Fifth, many strategists suggest that the US is interested in constituting a kind of security (not military) alliance to confront North East Asia's instability and China's supremacy in the Asia-Pacific region with India, Australia, Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Bangladesh could also be included in the loop.
Given the above parameters, Bangladesh has become hugely important for the US because of its geographical location. Bangladesh shares borders with India and Myanmar. It is also a near neighbour to China and stands as a bridge between South Asia and South East Asia.
Bangladesh is a maritime nation and its access to the Indian Ocean is strategically important. With the verdict of International Tribunal on March14, Bangladesh is now able to lease its off-shore areas in the Bay of Bengal in the eastern side to foreign companies.
Bangladesh is the only Muslim-majority country which is surrounded by non-Muslim majority states and the influence of neighbouring states on its history, culture and traditions is extensive. The Hasina government took stern action against violent extremist organisations and overwhelming majority of people are tolerant and respectful to believers of all faiths, who constitute about 12% of the population.
Bangladesh is emerging as an economically vibrant country where businesspeople have been innovative and imaginative in pushing the economic growth consistently above 6% through decades. There has also been a change in the economy as 60% of Bangladesh's economy is connected globally and has been included as "Next -11" potential major economies.
During the visit, Hillary Clinton reportedly said the US energy company Conocophillips was interested in exploring off-shore blocks in the Bangladesh maritime areas and her country was willing to provide security to the off-shore oil-rigs against sabotage or other maritime threats.
The visit of Hillary Clinton was a blend of robust economic diplomacy coupled with its purpose of enlisting Bangladesh in the new security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region.
Bangladesh cannot rely on one ally for its security and prosperity. While cooperating with the US, Bangladesh has to be sensitive to the concerns of China and may balance its interests between the US and China, and should not be perceived to be with the US against China or vice versa. Asean has played a model role in balancing its benefits between the US and China. While Asean is tied with China in concluding Free Trade Agreement, it also seeks security assurances from the US.
British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston (1784-1865) once said: "We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual and those interests it is our duty to follow." Bangladesh may only follow his doctrine.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
The Daily Star, 23 May 2012

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