Yesterday afternoon, Hilary Clinton, the US Secretary of
State, arrived in Dhaka. So far she had a busy
schedule here. Besides meeting her counterpart Dipu Moni she called on our
prime minister as well as the leader of the opposition. A meeting with a select
group of civil society members is fixed for this morning as well as with our
Nobel Laureate Mohammed Yunus. She flies off to India in the afternoon. Hillary's
visit to Bangladesh
is not sudden. Nor is it a goodwill visit. Although this is her first visit as
a Secretary of State, the last time she came to Dhaka
twelve years back she was then the first lady of the US.
Bangladesh
has hosted several high ranking State Department officials this year alone.
Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State, came in February. Under-Secretary
of State Wendy Sherman followed in April. Assistant Secretary of State Andrew
Shapiro then arrived to join the first ever security dialogue between Bangladesh and
the USA.
The dialogue was held to identify the security challenges facing the two
countries. Hillary Clinton has come to now wrap up the discussions that have
taken place so far.
While commenting on the security dialogue, the US described it
as "a robust engagement between the US and Bangladesh as well as our growing
defense relationship." It said that "the positive and substantial
exchanges reflected the breadth, depth and strength of the bilateral defense
relationship as well as our shared commitment to peace and prosperity in the
region." In short, the US
feels that these discussions with Bangladesh which is now "one
of the most robust in South Asia is because Bangladesh is a
key player in maintaining security in the Bay of Bengal.
She is also an active partner in regional counter terrorism efforts."
In addition to security consultations, the US has also
shown interest in Bangladesh's
military modernization plan. For sometime now Bangladesh had been looking for
"partners for affordable defense systems." The US supports
this modernization effort through its Excess Defense Articles Program, which
makes US
equipment that is surplus to their needs, made available to other countries.
The US
at the same time appreciates Bangladesh's
UN peace keeping efforts. Through training and military exchanges the US has helped Bangladesh
armed forces to professionalise itself. It is US' strong belief that by helping
Bangladesh
upgrade its military, it is also helping to enhance its own national security.
It must be remembered that the US is now
disengaging itself from south west Asia. It
has already withdrawn its combat troops from Iraq. It will leave Afghanistan in
2014. President Obama, in an unannounced visit to Kabul last week, signed an agreement with President
Karzai which outlined how the US
will remain engaged there after the withdrawal of US forces. The US is also
trying to quickly repair its damaged relationship with Pakistan
especially between their military. India is already cooperating with
the US
on various strategic and nuclear issues. The US has thus woven a tapestry of
friendly countries around the Indian and Pacific Oceans
to protect its strategic interests. It has encouraged Japan and Australia as
well as neighbouring India
to help it implement this geo-strategic vision. The US has also moved to ease economic
sanctions against Myanmar
and to draw it into this strategy. Iran is the only country in this
area that has been left out of this great game.
To the US, Bangladesh must be drawn now into its
grand strategy. By showcasing a robust relationship with a moderate Muslim
country like Bangladesh,
the US
also wants to send a strong signal that it can work closely with countries
having large population of Muslims. A relevant question here is whether the US is doing all
this to contain the growing strategic and military might of China? The
answer is not yet very clear. Both the countries have annual consultations on
strategic issues and frequently collaborate on regional and world issues. They
may have differences over the nature of governance in each other's countries or
even over human rights. Yet they work closely. But India seems to have joined hands
with the USA
mainly to contain China.
The US has another immediate reason in
following this grand strategy. It wants to be sure that no rogue element could
scuttle ships carrying vital oil and gas supplies through the two major
maritime choke points, one at the Strait of Hormuz
in the Persian Gulf near Iran, and the
other close to Indonesia
in the Straits of Malacca. Any disruption in the flow of oil through these
straits would cripple many of the major economies in Asia
and Australia
and will damage western interests.
So the US is bolstering the military
strength of all the countries in the region so that they are able to combat any
such mischief on their own. Bangladesh
is a littoral country along the Indian Ocean.
It is well placed geographically in the Bay of Bengal
to see that no such mischief takes place. Hillary is here to see that a
"US-Bangladesh partnership cooperation" declaration is announced that
would take care of such eventualities when the two countries will be able to
consult and act jointly.
The strategic importance of Bangladesh had
been further enhanced by the stunning verdict given recently by the
International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) on the maritime border
dispute with Myanmar.
The award gave Bangladesh
111,000 square kilometers of exclusive economic zone in the Bay
of Bengal with sovereign rights over all the resources there. It
is expected that the area awarded may have gas and oil reserves as well as
valuable minerals. US companies are keen to bid for exploitation rights there
now, before Chinese companies come along and put them at a disadvantage. The US government
could request that another 6 blocks in addition to the two given already to
Conoco-Philips be awarded to US companies. Clinton may have talked about a mega energy
deal if she finds Bangladesh
government amenable.
There are a lot of speculative reports that Hillary
has talked with the government and opposition leaders about ways to overcome
the political impasse on the caretaker government. But it must be clear the US
administration will face presidential election this year. Hillary could at
best, in her talks with them and the civil society, be able to gauge the
political temperature. However, the US wishes to finalise the long
pending Trade and Investment Cooperation Framework Agreement (TICFA) between
the two countries. This would allow the US to have a say in our trade and
investment matters too. Bangladesh's
concern with regard to duty free exports of our ready made garments to the US needs early
resolution. It would also like to be included in the Millennium Challenge
Account. All these must have been horse traded last night. The press conference
would reveal all that happened.
Secretary Hillary after leaving Bangladesh will
travel to Delhi.
But she will stop by in Kolkata to meet the mercurial Chief Minister of West Bengal province, Mamata Banerjee. It is reported
that Hillary will try to understand how Mamata looks at the future relationship
between India
and Bangladesh.
This is critical for the US
as Mamata had put a spanner last September and scuttled the proposed agreement
on the sharing of the waters of the Teesta river. This has upset not only Bangladesh
leaders but also the man in the street in this country.
The immediate result has been the postponement
by Bangladesh
allowing India
the use of Chittagong
port for transit of goods to the north eastern Indian states. This has also
delayed the transit through Bangladesh
which India
had planned to use in its own interest. This has inevitably created a critical
gap in the seamless security strategy designed by the US for this
sub-region. The Kolkata meeting therefore is important for the US.
It is yet too early to say that Hillary's visit
will clear the clouds that had gathered over US-Bangladesh bilateral relations.
This was after the US
got a rebuff, when it requested for a dignified exit for Nobel Laureate Yunus
from Grameen Bank . Like the proverbial elephant , big powers always have long
memories . But that Hillary has come to Bangladesh at her own initiative
and has her own agenda and programme speaks much about US diplomacy.
We all hope that the government understands this and will not use the visit to
cash in politically.
The
writer is a former Ambassador and is a regular commentator on contemporary
issues. E-mail: ashfaque303@gmail.com
Source: The Daily Star, 06 May 2012
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