The combined attacks on
government installations including the parliament and Nato garrisons in three
separate districts have driven home one message loud and clear: Afghan security
forces trained by the United
States are hardly in any shape to takeover
from the International forces in 2014. Though the battle raged on for hours on
end and there was little damage done, the reputation of the newly trained
Afghan forces has taken a serious hit, particularly so because insurgents were
able to hit some of the best defended sites in the capital and elsewhere.
Hence, from both a psychological
and tactical point of view, the purpose of driving home the message that the
Taliban are far from a spent force has been achieved. Whilst Afghan forces have
been showered with accolades for their ability to neutralise the threat after
18 hours of battle, the fact that well-armed groups were able to penetrate into
areas considered to be "safe havens" has rattled nerves. As pointed
out to by a well-known Afghan member of parliament Wazhma Frogh who was caught
up in the crossfire: "I was nearly shot in the back as I was walking down
the street, not by a terrorist but by the Afghan police who were just shooting
at everything. They had no idea where they were firing."
The sophistication of the latest
attacks highlights one thing: The insurgents, whoever they may be, have learnt
to launch and coordinate simultaneous attacks on a variety of targets in
different parts of the country. All this requires meticulous long-term
planning, significant resources in terms of a solid support base that provide
safe housing to dedicated teams of fighters and storage of a variety of
weaponry. The other revelation, and one that is far more disturbing, is that
the Taliban have access to excellent intelligence about security measures in
and around the capital. On the contrary, Afghan security forces had little or
inkling about the series of attacks that shook the country on April 15.
So where does that leave the
Obama administration with its planned withdrawal from the country in 2014?
There is no denying the fact that Afghanistan has not been subjected
to this sort of a firefight since 2001. While attempts are made to show the
world how it was Afghan forces that ultimately quelled the violence, the fact
that groups of armed fighters were able to get rockets fired off at the
parliament whilst the house was in session shows how woefully inadequate
preparations are on the government side to ensure safety and security in the
capital, let alone the whole country. A decade of occupation has not brought
peace to war-ravaged Afghanistan.
And with time running out for the Karzai government in the backdrop of an
imminent US withdrawal, the first tentative steps have been taken to reach out
to the opposition in the hope of finding a peaceful solution through a
political peace process.
Yet here too there have been
problems. The willingness to talk to some Taliban factions whilst ignoring
others have not helped matters. Once an ally of the West in the fight against
the Soviets, Hekmatyar has since 2001 turned out to be a formidable foe to both
Kabul and Nato
forces. As pointed out by Vali Nasr, a onetime adviser on Afghanistan and Pakistan to the late Richard
Holbrook, President Obama's envoy to the region, "Hekmatyar was seldom
discussed. He was seen as the smallest and least powerful of the three elements
of the Taliban: the Quetta Shura, The Haqqani Network and Hizb-e-Islami. He is
a local problem, rather than a strategic one."
Yet, this "local
problem" has now become a major problem. There is little doubt that the
latest attacks were indeed masterminded by Hekmatyar's faction. The timing of
the attack could not have come at a better time given that Nato and allies were
in the final phase of putting together plans for transition of security to
Afghan forces. Given current realities on the ground, it can safely be stated
that the withdrawal of international forces in 2014 will result in total chaos
returning to the country. The local Afghan forces obviously have a long way to go
before they are in a position to tackle a force as formidable and resourceful
as the Taliban.
Since the military
"option" has been exercised for the greater part of the decade and
not achieved a resounding victory for either side, there is no recourse but to
sue for peace for the government at the center should it wish to survive.
However, the latest show of force by a newly rejuvenated Taliban in all its
various shades and hues, they will in all probability drive a hard bargain at
the negotiating table. It would be wise not to set preconditions for talks, for
the boot is no longer on Karzai's foot and time unfortunately is running out
fast for a negotiated settlement that would see Afghanistan return to the
fraternity of peaceful nations.
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